Experimental forecast of thermal conditions in the South Kuril region in summer by modified Fourier method
https://doi.org/10.26428/1606-9919-2021-201-458-469
Abstract
Time series of air temperature and sea surface temperature in South Kuril region in July and August are extrapolated to 2020–2024 using modified method of Fourier decomposition. Both cyclic harmonic components and linear trend are accounted. Two main cycles with period of 2 years and 6–7 years dominate in variability of air temperature anomaly (in Wakkanai, Abashiri, Nemuro) and sea surface temperature anomaly (at Кurilsk, Yuzhno-Kurilsk, Malokurilskoe, in the area of Soya Current, and in the area southeastward from Hokkaido), as well as in variability of AT 500 hPa height in the regional centers of atmospheric action, as Far-Eastern depression and Okhotsk anticyclone.
About the Authors
T. A. Shatilina
VNIRO (TINRO)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Shatilina Tatiana A., Ph.D., leading researcher, Pacific branch
4, Shevchenko Alley, Vladivostok, 690091
G. Sh. Tsitsiashvili
Institute of Applied Mathematics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Tsitsiashvili Guram Sh., D.Math., professor, principal researcher
7, Radio Str., Vladivostok, 690041
T. V. Radchenkova
Institute of Applied Mathematics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Radchenkova Tatyana V., junior researcher
7, Radio Str., Vladivostok, 690041
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Review
For citations:
Shatilina T.A., Tsitsiashvili G.Sh., Radchenkova T.V. Experimental forecast of thermal conditions in the South Kuril region in summer by modified Fourier method. Izvestiya TINRO. 2021;201(2):458-469. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.26428/1606-9919-2021-201-458-469
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