Pink salmon fishery in the Far-Eastern fishing basin in 2025: results of the season, analysis of deviations, reliability of the forecast

Results of the pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) fishery season in the Russian Far East in 2025 (odd-year brood line) are analyzed on data of fishery statistics and marine trawl surveys conducted in 2024 – 2025. The salmon run abundance and catches are considered by regions, their deviations from the for ecasted values are examined, and factors able to influence on the fishery are discussed. The total annual catch of pink salmon is evaluated in 222.6 · 103 t that is below the long-term value for odd years (on average 294.0 · 103 t for 2003–2023). Strong regional contrasts were detected: a record-high harvest in the Primorye fishing subzone (8.8.103 t in Primorye Region and 10.8 · 103 t in Khabarovsk Region) against the lowest catch since early 2000s in East Sakhalin (3.5 · 103 t that was 17.6 · 103 t below the forecast). Results of the marine trawl surveys in fall 2024 (offshore migration of juveniles) and summer 2025 (pre-spawning migration of adults) allowed to develop rather accurate basin-scale forecasts of the pink salmon run, but their differentiation from mixed aggregations within the Okhotsk Sea was forecasted with overestimation of the southern Okhotsk Sea stocks contribution (run to East Sakhalin and southern Kuril Islands). Possible reasons for these discrepancies are analyzed. The pink salmon annual catches decline steadily in East Sakhalin (since 2009), West Kamchatka (since 2018), and East Kamchatka (since 2019) on the background of de- clining reproductive potential and hierarchical shifts between brood lines in major spawning areas that presumabl y occurs within long-term climate-induced cycle.

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